试论加强中央银行执政能力建设

加强央行执政能力建设,关系着党在金融业的执政能力,关系着国家的稳定与发展.因此,必须深刻认识加强央行执政能力建设的重要性,科学分析加强央行执政能力建设应具备的条件和素质,揭示加强央行执政能力建设的对策.     

中国上市银行系统性风险度量——基于MES方法的分析

运用边际预期损失(MES)方法,通过DCC-GARCH模型和非参数估计计算我国14家上市银行的边际预期损失,并结合资产规模和杠杆率等因素度量各上市银行的系统性风险。研究结果表明,虽然资产规模、杠杆率和边际期望损失都是决定系统性风险的重要因素,但我国上市银行的系统性风险总体表现为:规模越大的银行,系统性风险也越大,即大型商业银行的系统性风险最大,股份制商业银行次之,城市商业银行的系统性风险最小。此外,三类商业银行的系统性风险随时间呈不同的变化趋势。     

Are Market‐Based Measures of Global Systemic Importance of Financial Institutions Useful to Regulators and Supervisors?

We analyze whether four market‐based measures of the global systemic importance of financial institutions offer early warning signals during three financial crises. The tests based on the 2007–2008 crisis show that only one measure (?CoVaR) consistently adds predictive power to conventional early warning models. However, the additional predictive power remains small and it is not normally confirmed for the Asian and the 1998 crises. We conclude that it is problematic to identify a market‐based measure of systemic importance that remains valid across crises with different features. The same criticism also applies to several conventional proxies of systemic importance, of which size is the most consistent performer.     

宏观审慎框架下中国上市银行系统性风险监测研究

采用2003年9月~2014年1月的市场数据,基于时间序列分析方法,在宏观审慎框架下,对中国上市银行系统性风险的累积性、截面维度的横向共振性、时间维度的纵向共振性特征进行动态研究。得到的主要结论有：中国上市银行系统性风险配置机制已逐渐形成,大型商业银行对系统性风险的表现具有代表性,中国上市银行体系的关联性在逐渐增强,中国上市银行系统性风险具有一定的外生性和顺周期性。     

基于生态重要性和MSPA核心区连通性的生态安全格局构建 ——以桂江流域为例

研究目的：探索基于“生态重要性”和“形态学空间格局分析（Morphological Spatial Pattern Analysis, MSPA）核心区连通性”的生态安全格局构建方法,为国土空间生态保护修复和生态安全格局构建提供参考。研究方法：基于生态重要性识别生态源地,利用最小累积阻力模型提取潜在生态廊道并以重力模型评价其重要程度,提出基于MSPA核心区的“非源地核心区面积生态网络连接率（C）”和“非源地核心区生态廊道长度比率（E）”指数并结合网络结构分析综合评判生态网络优劣。研究结果：（1）桂江流域含生态源地11处,总面积7 948.50 km2,占桂江流域总面积的41.20 %。 （2）潜在生态廊道38条,总计1 839.95 km,其中重要生态廊道26条,总计1 278.29 km,包括一级生态廊道12条（515.47 km）和二级生态廊道14条（762.82 km）。（3）以26条重要生态廊道构成最优的生态网络,E处于峰值,非源地核心区生态廊道长度比率较高;C值更高,生态网络对于研究区内主要生态空间斑块的连通性更好;α指数和γ指数接近等于1,即网络基本达到最大限度回路数且每个节点都彼此相连;β指数更高,网络结构比较复杂且结构完善。研究结论：该方法能够有效评判生态网络优劣和实现生态安全格局构建,为国土空间生态保护和修复提供技术支撑。     

论建立企业内部控制制度的重要性

内部控制是一个企业或单位为了保证其资产的安全性、会计资料的准确性和可靠性 ,提高经营效率以及贯彻执行其规定的管理方针而在组织内采用的一系列制度、方法和手续 ,本文在介绍内部控制的概念以及进行内部控制的重要性的基础上 ,分别从宏观和微观角度阐述了如何加强和完善企业内部控制     

虚拟企业文化相关问题分析

企业文化在相当程度上决定了企业的发展状况,企业文化具有务实性、投资性、有形性、变革性、独特性等特点。作为现代企业发展的一种新型的组织形式,企业文化可对虚拟企业在特殊管理模式及员工的管理特征等方面提供支持,对企业的发展壮大具有非常现实的意义和长远的历史意义     

A Distance-Based Collective Preorder Integrating the Relative Importance of the Group's Members

In this paper, we propose an aggregation procedure, which includes two steps. In the first one, the group's members elaborate individually a preorder (total or partial) on the alternatives set. These preorders can be obtained, for example, by applying a multicriterion aggregation procedure such as ELECTRE III, PROMETHEE I or II. In the second step, these individual preorders (total or partial) are aggregated into a collective preorder (total or partial). For this purpose, we first built a distance measure between pairs of binary relations in order to quantify the divergence between two preorders. Then we determine, for each pair of alternatives, the relative importance coefficients of the group's members by using a method based on subjective and objective components. These coefficients and the distance measure are finally exploited by an iterative algorithm in order to elaborate a collective preorder synthesizing the individual preorders.     

发展县域经济提升综合竞争力——以廊坊市为例

发展县域经济是发展国民经济的关键,是全面建设小康社会的载体。廊坊市县域经济发展虽已积累一些经验,但总的来说水平较低,不平衡。廊坊市各县域要通过形成特色、改变二元结构、发展循环经济、园区经济、民营经济、加强基础设施和软环境建设来加快发展,提升综合竞争力。     

Does diversification promote systemic risk?

We measure systemic risk when faced with simulated shocks through the systemic model of banking originated losses. The formation mechanism of systemic risk is explored from the perspective of investment diversification and asset similarity. The results indicate that contagion risks formed by the over similarity of investment assets are the main cause of systemic risk. The similarity generally promotes contagion risks, however, it shows a double-faced effect for state-owned commercial banks that disperse shocks from counterparties through their too-big-to-fail advantages. The similarity is determined by diversification, which initially promotes similarity and disperses it after a threshold. The diversification acts on the contagion process of systemic risk by the mediation of the similarity. Therefore, diversification generally has a nonlinear impact on systemic risk. The results provide regulatory implications for the systemic stability of the banking system.